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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.