Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.