NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, just two play-off spots remain open. However, far more is at stake, including the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and several divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect finale, with the two remaining play-off positions on the line in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens contest will secure the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, the Bills and the Chargers are set as wildcard teams.
Houston require a victory coupled with a Jacksonville defeat to jump from the fifth seed to the third seed. Denver will secure the #1 ranking with a win, but a setback could open the door for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still win the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh seed. The highlight, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC receives a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the other six playoff teams compete: the second seed hosts the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
In the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds enter the competition, hosting the weakest surviving team. The conference championship games are then hosted by the highest seed, underscoring the immense value of earning that top spot.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth on the line, this is a genuine win-or-go-home scenario.
The Steelers have been up and down this season, while the Ravens started poorly but are still in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: Pittsburgh may miss key target their top wideout, while the Ravens' quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a back injury.
Star rusher Derrick Henry could be the difference-maker for Baltimore in what is set up as a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks visits San Francisco. The winner claims the conference's #1 spot and the road to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup pits an high-powered 49ers offense against a stingy Seattle defense. Since quarterback their young passer came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, the Seahawks' unit is ranked second best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback their passer needs to cut down on mistakes that have haunted him this year. The team that wins this clash gains a massive edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs comes into this game with much momentum. The Buccaneers have lost four straight, while Carolina have squandered recent opportunities to secure the division.
For Carolina it's simple: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require help from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Denver defeat would hand the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a triumph and defeats for both Denver and New England to pull off an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
