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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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